Charles Whittlesey: The Islander on Kindle

Is the Amazon Kindle the beginning of the end for traditional books?

Will it change traditional publishing the same way that MP3s changed the music industry, or merely occupy an obscure niche much like the Sony Reader?

And ultimately would this be a good or a bad thing?

It depends on who you are.

Readers, once they actually get to try a Kindle, will probably love it. The Kindle allows you to connect to Amazon's web site and download books for about $10 each. Supposedly the books are easy to read on the matt-white screen, unlike the electronic readers of the past. And the Kindle can store dozens of books, enabling you to keep a virtual library at your fingertips.

If you're a writer without the backing up a big publishing house, like me, this is an earth-shaking development. It allows us to compete with the big houses on price, which has been a major impediment for print-on-demand authors. Instead of selling a book for $25.99 and getting a $1.59 royalty, you can now sell it at the Kindle Store for $9.99 and get a $3.50 royalty.

On the other hand, if you're a publisher, book distributor, bookstore owner, agent, paper salesman, or even a book critic, the Kindle should strike fear into your heart: it could take you out of the business loop, putting your salary into the pockets of authors and Amazon.com, neither of whom may need you anymore.

If and when that happens, readers and Amazon (and not publishers and agents) will decide which books sell and which don't. Advertising budgets, critical reviews, and distribution chains will no longer matter so much; the web will select books that generate interest and spread them virally through reader reviews and targeted recommendations. The web and customers, not a coterie of experts, will decide whether or not a book sells.

Of course, there's enormous risk here. If it turns out to be as easy to pirate Kindle files as MP3 files, then both author and Amazon could join the ranks of endangered publishers. Everything ever written would soon be accessible to everyone, and NO ONE will get paid for anything. Such a scenario would eliminate incentives for authors to write, potentially dealing a death blow not only to the book industry but also to the arts.

It's not pretty to think about.

And there's always the risk of monopoly. Amazon could simply become the most intimidating gatekeeper in the history of publishing, controlling price, availability, and every other aspect of the business. And all bow down to Amazon we must.

But like it or not, the change is here to stay. Yes, the Kindle needs more tweaking, but that's all it will take––tweaking. Paper is no longer necessary––unless you're a technophobe or merely nostalgic. And the publishing world will never be the same.

Buy The Islander on Kindle